🎈Are US Stocks in a Bubble? The S&P 500 $SPX500 is at all time high even though we have a recession. The CAPE ratio is very high. The Buffett indicator is at 200%. 𝘼𝙡𝙡 𝙨𝙞𝙜𝙣𝙨 𝙤𝙛 𝙖 𝙗𝙪𝙗𝙗𝙡𝙚. 𝘽𝙪𝙩 𝙬𝙚 𝙘𝙖𝙣 𝙝𝙖𝙫𝙚 𝙖𝙧𝙜𝙪𝙢𝙚𝙣𝙩𝙨 𝙖𝙜𝙖𝙞𝙣𝙨𝙩 𝙖 𝙗𝙪𝙗𝙗𝙡𝙚. Maybe the CAPE ratio is so high because of zero interest rates. The Buffett indicator can be flawed because it doesn't take into consideration the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve System or that most US companies such as Apple $AAPL draws much of their revenues overseas.
📈Ray Dalio, the founder of the largest hedge fund in the world, Bridgewater Associates, has another metric (which is proprietary) and according to this metric, US Stocks are 𝟳𝟳% 𝙞𝙣 𝙖 𝘽𝙪𝙗𝙗𝙡𝙚, unlike 1929 and 2000 when we were 100% in a bubble.
❓Ray Dalio talks about 𝟲 𝙢𝙖𝙞𝙣 𝙥𝙤𝙞𝙣𝙩𝙨 𝙩𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙙𝙚𝙩𝙚𝙧𝙢𝙞𝙣𝙚 𝙖 𝙗𝙪𝙗𝙗𝙡𝙚:
1. How high are prices relative to traditional measures? Somewhat Frothy
2. Are prices discounting unsustainable conditions? No Bubble
3. How many new buyers (i.e., those who weren’t previously in the market) have entered the market? Frothy
4. How broadly bullish is sentiment? Frothy
5. Are purchases being financed by high leverage? Somewhat Frothy
6. Have buyers made exceptionally extended forward purchases (e.g., built inventory, contracted forward purchases, etc.) to speculate or protect themselves against future price gains? No Bubble
🚗 But Ray Dalio sees 𝙖 𝙗𝙪𝙗𝙗𝙡𝙚 𝙞𝙣 𝙚𝙢𝙚𝙧𝙜𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙩𝙚𝙘𝙝. We have seen in recent years how the NASDAQ $NSDQ100 has outperformed the S&P 500. There are stocks with no real earnings with market caps of over $600 billion (I'm talking about Tesla $TSLA ) and investors are still expecting these stocks to be tenbaggers. I find it very unlikely for Tesla to be worth $6 trillion in 2030 and Apple $20 Trillion.
💵 The bubble is here but only in some stocks. If you know where to look, you can still find cheap stocks. 𝙍𝙚𝙢𝙚𝙢𝙗𝙚𝙧 𝙩𝙤 𝙖𝙡𝙬𝙖𝙮𝙨 𝙛𝙤𝙘𝙪𝙨 𝙤𝙣 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙛𝙪𝙣𝙙𝙖𝙢𝙚𝙣𝙩𝙖𝙡𝙨 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙩𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙩𝙝𝙞𝙨 𝙞𝙨 𝙖 𝙡𝙤𝙣𝙜-𝙩𝙚𝙧𝙢 𝙜𝙖𝙢𝙚.
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